近日，遼寧大學教授於妙傑入選2023年“IEA院士獎”名單。 俞妙傑教授是第十四屆全國人大代表、遼寧省第十四屆人大常委會委員、遼寧大學黨委副書記、校長，是繼清華大學錢穎儀教授之後，第四位獲得國際經濟學會院士銜的中國經濟學家。 中國社科院吳景廉教授、北京大學林義夫教授，2023年全球12位“國際經濟協會院士”中唯一一位來自中國的經濟學家。本期精選於妙傑教授在JTP平台上的6篇雙語文章，歡迎閱讀！
精選文章
中間投入的自由化和企業在勞動力市場上的市場力量。
input trade liberalization and firms’ labor market power
[摘要]。本文從不完全競爭的勞動力市場的角度出發，考察了以降低中間投入品進口關稅為代表的自由化對勞動力市場企業市場力量的影響。 本文利用中國工業企業資料和海關資料，在企業層面構建了中間投入品的進口關稅。 實證研究表明，降低中間投入品進口關稅，擴大了企業的產出規模，提高了中間投入要素的比重，通過節約成本效應和要素替代效應，使企業向產業上游轉移，從而增強了企業的勞動力市場力量。 這一結果對於不同的勞動力市場力量指標、中間投入品進口關稅指標和回歸樣本都是穩健的。 在實施自由化的同時，要限制企業在勞動力市場上的勾結，提供多樣化、完整的職業培訓和完善的公共服務，增強勞動力市場的流動性和競爭力，保障勞動者的權益。
【abstract】before and after joining the wto in 2001, china slashed import tariffs and liberalized trade. however, at the same time, the proportion of china’s labor income has been declining, and the lag of labor compensation growth has been increasing. to explain this phenomenon, existing literature explored the impact of trade liberalization on china’s labor income, labor productivity, and labor income share. however, these studies ignored the imperfect competitiveness of the labor market. labor economics literature highlighted that when the labor market is not perfectly competitive, firms can use their market power in the labor market to lower wages below the value created by workers, resulting in wage markdown, and ultimately reducing labor income. therefore, based on the imperfect competitiveness of the labor market, this **explores the impact of trade liberalization, represented by import tariff reductions, on the firms’ labor market power, complementing existing literature on the influence of trade on labor income share.this **uses the matching data of china’s industrial enterprise database and customs database from 2000 to 2006 for empirical research. the empirical results show that the reduction of intermediate input import tariffs has both a cost s**ing effect and a factor substitution effect. specifically, when the tariff on intermediate inputs falls, firms can import them at a lower price, which is reflected in the increase in the proportion of imported intermediate inputs of enterprises, and at the same time move to the upstream industries that use these inputs more intensively, such that the output scale of firms expands and, ultimately, firms’ market power in the labor market increases. at the same time, the reduction of import tariffs on final goods has no significant impact on the firms’ labor market power.the contribution of this **to existing literature relates to the following three aspects. first, this **more accurately measures the level of trade liberalization of intermediate inputs faced by firms. since chinese firms often import a variety of products and cover multiple industries, industry tariffs cannot accurately reflect the true trade barriers faced by firms. at the same time, the construction of intermediate input tariffs at the industry level requires the use of input-output tables. on the one hand, this would mix domestic intermediate inputs with imported intermediate inputs, where the former is not directly affected by trade liberalization. on the other hand, the construction of the input-output table is based on large-scale enterprises, which will cause sample selection problems. in addition, during the sample period, processing trade firms accounted for a large proportion of china’s total trade. because these firms do not need to pay tariffs when importing raw materials and intermediate inputs, there are clear measurement errors in using industry tariffs to measure the level of trade liberalization faced by firms. second, this **explores the mechanism by which intermediate import tariffs affect firms’ labor market power. the reduction of import tariffs on intermediate inputs has both a cost s**ing effect and a factor substitution effect, which affects the firms’ market power by influencing the output scale, the proportion of factor inputs, and the position in the industrial production chain. finally, this **supplements the literature on the decline of labor’s income share and the deviation of labor compensation from labor’s contribution to production. this **has strong policy implications. while promoting trade liberalization, firms’ collusion in the labor market should be limited, and diversified and comprehensive vocational training and public services should be provided. moreover, the labor market should be more mobile and competitive to protect workers’ rights and interests.
創造性的破壞，開發全新的產品，還是提高產品質量？ ——對中國出口企業的創新維度進行核算。
creative destruction, new varieties, or improvements of existing products? innovation accounting of chinese exporting enterprises
[摘要]。創新對全要素生產率的貢獻可以通過對新進入者和現有企業的創造性破壞、新產品的開發以及現有企業對現有產品質量的提高來實現，但現有文獻缺乏對這三種創新渠道的相對重要性的衡量。本文採用模擬矩估計方法對結構模型引數進行標定，並通過企業從業人員數量的變化間接計算不同創新活動對全要素生產率的貢獻。 我們發現，超過60%的全要素生產率增長來自現有企業對現有產品的創新。 然而，新進入者對全要素生產率增長的貢獻從172002-2007年增加到32個，增幅為76%98%，表明新進入者在他們的創新活動中變得越來越重要。 此外，出口商通過開發新產品對全要素生產率增長的貢獻遠大於非出口商。 與出口商相比，非出口國通過創造性破壞對全要素生產率增長的貢獻更大。
【abstract】under the new normal, promoting innovation, high-quality development and the transformation of china’s economic development from investment-driven mode to innovation-driven mode is the top priority of national policies. it is necessary for us to decompose the change of total factor productivity (tfp) of china’s economy in detail and sort out the relative importance of different channels of tfp growth in china, so as to provide reference for policies of promoting tfp growth. in addition, because of the relationship between tfp and export decision-**and the relationship between innovation and export, understanding the similarities and differences between export enterprises and non-export enterprises in innovation channels is also of great significance for building a new development pattern of dual circulation. existing literature on the contribution of innovation to tfp carries out discussion mainly from three mechanisms, namely, creative destruction, improvement of enterprises’ product quality and research and development of new products. however, because it is difficult to directly distinguish the three kinds of innovation activities in empirical research, there is a lack of measurement of the relative importance of the three innovation channels. in this **different forms of innovation activities of enterprises are combined with the change of the number of employees in enterprises, and a mapping between them is constructed. by using enterprise labor force data and simulated moments estimation method, this **indirectly calculates the contribution of different innovation activities to tfp through the change of the number of employees in enterprises. we find that the main source of tfp growth in china from 1998 to 2007 was the improvement of incumbent enterprises’ product quality, and its contribution was 75% during 1998–2001, which dropped to 60.1% during 2002–2007. the contribution of new entrants’ creative destruction to tfp growth increased from 17.8% during 1998–2001 to 27.3% during 2002–2007, and the contribution of new entrants’ r&d of brand-new products increased from 0.17% to 5.69%, indicating that new entrants were more active in creative destruction and r&d of brand-new products during 2002–2007. furthermore, we discuss the relative importance of different sources of tfp growth of export enterprises and non-export enterprises. the difference between export enterprises and non-export enterprises in innovation is that the contribution of export enterprises to tfp growth is far greater than that of non-export enterprises in terms of r&d of brand-new products. compared with export enterprises, non-export enterprises contribute more to tfp growth through creative destruction. the reason may be that high-productivity enterprises, involved in international trade, h**e more opportunities to learn foreign advanced technologies, so that their success rate of developing brand-new products and the quality of their brand-new products are improved. oriented to foreign markets, export enterprises focus on the needs of the international market more than on domestic demand when developing new products. compared with previous literature, this **has contributions in the following three aspects. first, researchers in the field of international trade h**e put forward many mechanisms for trade to promote productivity, but the importance of these mechanisms is not clear. this **indirectly calculates the contribution of different innovation activities to tfp through the change of the number of employees, so that we can understand the relative importance of these mechanisms. second, this **builds on existing literature on the sources of economic growth in china, and specifically answers the question of how innovative activities promote the redistribution of labor factors among enterprises. third, this **contributes to measuring the value of innovation. this **has certain significance for understanding the growth source of tfp and the relationship between employment and innovation, promoting the scientific formulation of china’s scientific and technological innovation policy and building china’s strength in science and technology in a way which is suitable for china’s national conditions.
多產品企業的外部需求、競爭策略和出口行為。
foreign demand, competitive strategy and export beh**ior of multi-product firms
[摘要]。本文參考 Mayer 等人（2016）盡可能構建外生外需指數，研究外需對採用質量競爭和成本競爭策略的多產品企業出口行為的差異影響效應及機制。 本文在闡述相關典型事實、梳理理論機理的基礎上，提出研究假設，並基於2000—2013年中國工業企業資料庫和中國海關資料庫的匹配資料進行實證檢驗。 研究結論表明，正（負）外需變化導致多產品企業採取質量競爭策略，增加（減少）其核心出口產品**，增加（減少）出口產品範圍，擴大（減少）出口產品分布的分散度。 外部需求的變化對採用成本競爭策略的多產品企業的出口行為具有相反的影響。 上述結論在改變外需計算方法、考慮內生性問題、消除極值等魯棒性檢驗中仍然有效。 作用機理的分析和檢驗表明，外需的變化改變了目的地企業面臨的市場競爭程度。 採用質量競爭策略的企業主要應對核心產品質量的變化，而採用成本競爭策略的企業主要通過改變核心產品的成本來應對外部需求的變化。 本文為多產品企業有效應對外部需求變化、做出正確的出口行為決策、促進高質量發展奠定了理論基礎，並提供了政策啟示。
【abstract】since the global financial crisis in 2008, the growth rate of china’s exports has slowed down significantly. the **erage annual growth rate of exports during 2009–2018 was 6.95%, which was much lower than the **erage annual growth rate of exports (28.47%) during the period before wto accession and the financial crisis (2002–2008). the weak external demand from developed countries caused by the financial crisis was one of the main factors for the rapid decline of china’s export growth. in recent years, the increasing trend of trade protectionism and counter-globalization, such as brexit and the revitalizing of us manufacturing, has further exacerbated the uncertainty of china’s exports to developed markets. this **intended to study how the external demand of export destinations affected the export beh**iors of chinese firms. this **calculated external demand at the firm-destination-year level based on total imports at the destinations (excluding china’s exports), an indicator that is not influenced by the exporting firms, thus ensuring the exogeneity of the variable of external demand. according to stylized facts, external demand variations h**e opposite statistical relationships with the export beh**iors of multi-product firms adopting quality-competitive and cost-competitive strategies. therefore, this **aimed to investigate the differential effects of external demand on the export beh**iors of multi-product firms adopting quality-competitive and cost-competitive strategies and the mechanisms. an empirical study was conducted based on matched data from the china industry business performance database and the chinese customs database from 2000–2013. the findings showed that positive (negative) external demand variations led multi-product firms with the quality-competitive strategy to increase (decrease) the price of their core export products, increase (decrease) the range of export products, and extend (decrease) the distribution dispersion of their export products to a greater extent; and the external demand variations had exactly the opposite effect on the export beh**iors of multi-product firms with the cost-competitive strategy. the above findings still held in the robustness tests such as changing the method of calculating external demand, considering the endogeneity problem and excluding extreme values. the mechanism of action analysis and tests showed that external demand variations changed the degree of competition in the destination market faced by firms, with positive external demand increasing the degree of market competition and negative external demand decreasing the degree of market competition; and firms adopting the quality-competitive strategy responded to external demand variations mainly by changing the quality of their core products, while firms adopting the cost-competitive strategy responded to the variations in the cost of their core products. this **found that the export beh**iors of firms with different competitive strategies are opposite, which revealed that when responding to external demand, firms should first identify whether they adopted quality- or cost-competitive strategies and make corresponding decisions on export beh**iors based on those strategies.
人民幣匯率與中國企業對外直接投資：服務型投資視角.
renminbi exchange rate and chinese firms’ outward direct investment: from the perspective of distribution odi
[摘要]。本文研究了匯率變化對企業對外直接投資的影響，發現人民幣貶值不僅促進了出口，也促進了對外直接投資。 這種現象與大多數國家關於本國貨幣貶值阻礙投資的調查結果相反。 本文從服務型投資的角度來說明這一現象。 服務型投資具有降低跨境通訊成本和國內分銷成本可變成本的特點; 與基於生產的投資相比，它具有較低的固定投資成本。 因此，對於生產率高的企業來說，服務投資是實現利潤最大化的最佳選擇，因此服務投資成為我國對外直接投資的重要組成部分。 由於人民幣貶值是出口的輔助而不是替代，人民幣貶值不僅促進了出口，而且促進了一流的服務型投資。 本文豐富了對匯率變化對中國境外投資影響的理解。
【abstract】outward direct investment (odi) is usually found to be hampered by home currency depreciation in most countries while export is encouraged. this article shows the opposite findings concerning china that odi increases in responses to renminbi depreciation. distribution odi helps reduce cross-border communication costs and other variable costs that incur in export and lower fixed costs compared with non-distribution (production) odi. thus, only the most productive firms opt to engage in production odi whereas less productive firms, such as many chinese enterprises, opt to engage in distribution odi. in this regard, distribution odi is an auxiliary rather than a substitute to export. the article enriches our understanding of the nexus among odi, export, and exchange rate movement.
中國—亚细安自由區的經濟影響和扶貧效果.
china-asean free trade area: economic influence and poverty reduction effect
[摘要]。中國-亚细安自由貿易區是世界上人口最多的自由貿易區，也是全球GDP第三大經濟合作區。 自貿協定成員大多為發展中國家，面臨著經濟發展和消除貧困的共同挑戰。 中國—亚细安自由貿易區（CAFTA）的建立不僅具有巨大的經濟影響，而且具有至關重要的減貧效果。 自2002年協議首次簽署以來，中國-亚细安自由區在投資、投資和基礎設施建設等領域達成了多項經濟合作協議，促進了投資和投資的自由化，促進了中國和亚细安的經濟增長，促進了世界扶貧事業的發展。 本文回顧了中國—亚细安自由貿易區的建立過程，梳理了自貿區在投資和雙方基礎設施建設合作領域的促進措施，分析了中國與亚细安國家在投資和投資方面的發展現狀和特點，以及其經濟影響和減貧效果。 最後，闡述了自貿區存在的主要問題，並提出了相應的政策建議。 未來，推進世界互聯互通和投資自由化將繼續是世界減貧的良方。
【abstract】the china-asean free trade area (cafta) is the most populous free trade area in the world and the third largest economic cooperation area in the world. most cafta member countries are developing countries and face the common challenge of economic development and poverty eradication. the establishment of the cafta not only bears huge economic significance, but also has a crucial poverty reduction effect. since 2002, when china and the asean signed an agreement to establish the cafta, a number of economic cooperation agreements h**e been reached in the fields of trade, investment, and infrastructure construction, which h**e contributed to the liberalization of trade and investment, the economic growth of china and asean countries and the progress in poverty eradication. this article reviews the establishment of the cafta, summarizes the measures in trade and investment promotion and the cooperation in infrastructure construction.; it analyzes the status quo of trade and investment between china and asean countries, the economic influence and poverty reduction effect of the cafta. finally, the article elaborates on the main challenges facing the cafta and puts forward policy suggestions. in the future, promotion of global connectivity and liberalization of trade and investment will remain a very effective way to reduce poverty.
工業企業的產能利用率測量和生產率估算。
capacity utilization rate measurement and productivity estimation for industrial firms
[摘要]。內容提要：準確衡量產能利用率是理解和解決產能過剩問題的關鍵。 本文基於企業層面資本折舊率與產能利用率的對應關係，將產能利用率的作用引入生產函式估計框架，並提出了一種同時估計產能利用率和生產率的方法。 該方法明確界定了產能利用率的概念，具有廣泛的適用性。 本文採用該方法對1998—2007年和2011—2013年中國工業企業產能利用率進行了估算，結果表明：1）忽視產能利用率變化低估了中國工業企業總體生產率水平;2）2007年前，我國工業企業產能利用率總體呈上公升趨勢，但隨後出現下降;3）不同性質的企業具有高度的異質性，生產率較高、人均資本存量較低、出口產出比較高、利潤率較高的企業往往具有較高的產能利用率。
【abstract】summary: overcapacity of specific industries, such as steel and coal, has been viewed as one of the most important and extensively discussed economic issues of china. the main feature of overcapacity is a massive amount of idling capacity, often considered to be a sub-optimal situation. the overcapacity of the steel industry is also closely related to low export price. therefore, it turns out to be the most common fuse of trade disputes between china and developed economies, such as the u.s. and european union. since the late 1990s, the chinese government has initiated five rounds of policies aiming to tackle overcapacity. however, overcapacity keeps emerging periodically in some specific industries despite government’s efforts. since 2012, reducing overcapacity of particular industries has been listed as one of the primary economic goals of the chinese government. by definition, overcapacity is a low level of capacity utilization. therefore, the key to understanding overcapacity is to precisely measure capacity utilization rate. however, current methods of measurement, such as data envelopment analysis and stochastic production frontiers, are far from satisfaction because both concepts are used to define overcapacity or their underlying assumptions. based on the definition of greenwood et al. (1988) and the conceptual framework of ackerberg et al. (2015), we developed a new method to measure capacity utilization rate. we defined the capacity utilization rate as capital utilization intensity and incorporated flexible capacity utilization rate into the production function estimation framework. our underlying assumption is that higher capacity utilization leads to higher depreciation rate of capital. thus, we can use capital depreciation rate as a proxy variable to estimate capacity utilization rate and total productivity factor simultaneously. our method requires weaker assumptions, offers a more precise and intuitive characterization of overcapacity, and is more amenable to various extensions. empirically, we applied our method to chinese industrial enterprise database. collected and maintained by the national bureau of statistics, the database provides the most comprehensive micro-level information of chinese industrial firms. it contains information on depreciation as well as inputs and outputs information for production function estimation. we estimated the capacity utilization rate and total factor productivity of chinese industrial firms from 1998 to 2007 and from 2011 to 2013. our results show that ignoring flexible capacity utilization would overestimate the elasticity of labor input on output and underestimate the elasticity of capital input. for most industries, this will lead to underestimation of firm-level productivity. our results suggest that productivity of chinese industrial firms has increased in the sample period. compared with estimates of previous methods of capacity utilization, our estimates are much closer to the estimates obtained via direct investigation and more consistent with the macroeconomic background. chinese industrial firms experienced an overall rise in capacity utilization rate from 1998 to 2007 and a drop around 2012. we also explored the variations in capacity utilization across firms. firms with higher productivity, lower capital intensity, higher export intensity and profit ratio are associated with higher capacity utilization rate. foreign-owned firms h**e the highest capacity utilization while state-owned enterprises h**e the lowest one. we also observed substantial regional variations in capacity utilization across provinces. the policy implication of the results is that to tackle overcapacity efficiently, policymakers should take into account the heterogeneity of overcapacity along different dimensions. the most important contribution of this **lies in developing a new method of capacity utilization and utilization-adjusted total productivity factor. there are still a lot of controversies on the causes of and solutions to china’s overcapacity problem. this **tries to offer a benchmark framework to understand all these issues. we also provided some tentative and descriptive evidence to explore the variations in capacity utilization. future research agenda concerning the mechanisms that give rise to overcapacity and the evaluation of related policies could be carried out based on the estimation strategy and results of this **
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