diamonds are a scarce resource that forms carbon monocrystals deep in the earth under high pressure and heat. it was carried to the earth's surface by volcanic l**a eruptions. diamonds, also known as kimberley rock, appear in an **alanche of ore formed by ancient rivers. it is said that natural diamonds h**e been discovered for more than 3,000 years.
as we know, diamonds are the hardest substance in the world. gemstone grade‘s diamond, which is showing the unique diamond luster, shinning and sparkling. diamonds are regarded as precious items. they h**e been made into jewelry such as rings, chests, even the pearl on the crown, as a symbol of social status, wealth and honor.
diamonds were mined in large quantities by humans, when they’d realized the great value of diamonds. by the end of 2020, the top 10 diamond producers in the world are russia, botswana, congo, australia, south africa, canada, angola, namibia, ghana, brazil, whose total output accounts for more than 98%. china is less than them.
mining diamonds will destroy the environment, and the cost is rising in these years, however the total stock of natural diamonds on the earth is limited. as fast as mining speed, the existing diamond will be completed in about 20 years if no more productive mines are found.
there is a shortage of natural diamonds, but human demand for them has increased in recent years. high demand for natural diamonds continues as the economy grows and the natural diamond industry develops. china and india benefited from the good development of economy has become diamond consumption in emerging markets, has become a new driving force of the diamond growth.
huge demand gap requires to look for new breakthrough. in recent years, the emergence of imitation diamond cultivation has not only injected new vitality into the diamond industry, but also triggered a new round of changes, constantly affecting the whole diamond industry. different from natural diamonds, which represent blood, tears and pollution, man-made cultivated diamonds h**e little waste in the production process, and can be mass-produced, being environmental-friendly, technology and other characteristics. it is a future development trend to replace natural diamond with imitation diamond, and the research of imitation diamond will be more promising.
imitation diamonds was called firstly called diamond in the early days industry field, because they contain different kind of impurities. in early latin language, it is called adams, means "invincible and unconquerable". with the development of synthetic diamond technology, humans began to imitate diamonds that are colorless and transparent like natural diamonds. they are called synthetic diamonds to distinguish them from those previously used in industry.
now, there are two methods to manufacture it in the world, one is the high temperature and high pressure method (hpht method), the other is the growth method (cvd method). the high temperature and high pressure method (hpht) is widely adopted by domestic diamond production enterprises. the advantage is that it can synthesize large size single crystal and the process is relatively more mature, and the production price is low. in the global diamond industry report, the global production of gem-grade diamonds in 2019 was about 91 million carats, while imitation diamonds were only 6 million carats. the penetration rate of imitation diamonds is still low at around 6%. synthetic diamonds are in a period of rapid growth.
china's potential and abundant mineral resources provide good condition for imitation diamond potential growth. bain consultant agency predicts that china will become the first country of foster diamond original stone mark, it expected that chinese scale of cultivate diamond stone market can reach 2.95 million in 2025 ,which account for the global proportion of about 80.2%.
from the development stage of the industry, the opportunity has come, also the inflection point. from the perspective of industry space, imitation diamonds are not only a partial replacement of natural diamonds, but also a potential market space of 100 billion rmb due to its characteristics of high quality and low price. from the perspective of competition pattern, china is the world's largest producer of cultivated diamonds and the second largest consumer market of cultivated diamonds, and china's cultivated diamonds are at the breakout point of the industry.
china accounts for more than 80% of the world's synthetic diamonds. studying the impact of china's synthetic diamonds on the world can predict the impact of the world's synthetic diamonds on the diamond industry. there is a high concentration of cultivated diamond manufacturers in china, among which three companies located in henan province --henan huanghe whirl wind co., ltd., zhongnan diamond co., ltd., and zhengzhou sino-crystal diamond co., ltd. -occupy 70% of the cultivated diamond market in china. this highly concentrated characteristics of the survey statistics, is also an important source of data collected in this **
at present, the study on the impact of imitation diamonds on diamond industry is concentrated in the artificial cultivation instead of natural diamonds. a lot of research on past data to predict the future development of natural diamond, the given data and there is no basic data as a support. synthetic diamonds h**e only been developed in the last few years, so there's not enough foundation data to support. due to demand, actual produce imitation diamonds will be the first time to market, production data and market demand of data, it also provides a logical basis for the study. different with previous related research methods, this article embarks from the manufacture of artificial cultivation diamond link, targeted the use of the existing artificial cultivation of the characteristics of the diamond market demand through the mathematical model, probability sampling statistics, focus on research and analysis, logical reasoning and repeatedly verified knowledge theory to analyze the artificial cultivation of china diamond's influence on the diamond industry.
the research methods used in this **can be summarized in detail as follows:
first, focus sampling. china is expected to produce 80% of the world's synthetic diamonds by 2025, and the country's data could mirror those of the rest of the world. studying the data from huanghe, zhongnan and huajing, which account for 70% of china's total, can reflect china's data and extrapolate to the worlds.
second, field research. in 2010, i graduated from the college of materials science and engineering, henan university of technology, majoring in abrasives and abrasives. after graduation, i’ve been engaged in the field related to super-hard materials and products, as well as the industry related to industrial diamonds. i’ve been cooperating with domestic manufacturers of cultivated diamonds. the four factories with the largest production capacity of artificial cultivated diamonds in china, namely huanghe, zhongnan, huajing and liliang, h**e all done the physical field survey, which provides a reliable basis for the basic data of this **
third, logical terms, in this **the existing market phenomena in the current market are combined to carry out logical reasoning on the known related data, and repeated verification. the accuracy and rationality of some questionable data in the logical reasoning are further verified by the second field research method to ensure that the obtained relevant data are combined with the basic logic.
there are some relevant predictions before. however, most predictions are based on certain assumptions. for example, the data of citic securities on artificial cultivated diamonds in 2020 is based on the annual growth rate of global natural diamonds of 2% and the retail price of cultivated diamonds of 10,000 yuan. the underlying conditions of such forecasts are affected by the volatility of the market, and the results are hardly get the common recognition by peers.
the research methods used in this **are summarized as follows:
first, the data requires no preconditions and is more realistic. previous forecast was for prediction of the market, needs to make certain assumptions in the market environment, and on this basis to do market forecast. market is continuously in the transformation time, a lot of hypothetical conditions itself is defective, then to come out the conclusion prone to large deviation. this article is measured by number is now in the production of the development of the market, is based on the fact that has been formed the result is closer to the real world.
second, it is of great guiding significance to the development of the whole diamond industry. before that, the whole diamond industry was more concerned with the production of natural diamond mines and the actual consumption of the amount and the influencing factors, which became less meaningful after the development of man-made cultivated diamonds. on the one hand, man-made cultivated diamonds are not restricted by minerals and can be mass-produced; on the other hand, its low price and high quality h**e greatly promoted consumption. once the price drops to about 50 percent of the price of natural diamonds, cultured diamonds will be accepted by a much larger consumer group and consumption will increase exponentially.
thirdly, the artificial cultivation guiding significance for the future development of big diamond. the development of synthetic diamonds is only a few years old and there is not much data **ailable. most of the previous studies remain in the perception that the prospects of artificial cultivation of diamonds are good, the statistical data in this **will bring new evidence to the entire diamond industry. people can use this data to predict the future development of the diamond industry.
although the relevant data collected in this **are of great significance to the industry, several conditions should still be met:
first, demand exceeds supply. as soon as all the goods once the production to the market, production and marketing hook, related production data can reflect the market data. at present, artificial cultivated diamond is in the early stage of development. because its price is lower than natural diamond, it is f**ored by the public, and the market is in short supply. at present, several big factories in china are constantly armed with equipment, and there are more new artificial cultivation diamond manufacturers set up. in july 10, 2021, the opening ceremony of processing 1.2 billion carats of high quality synthetic diamond project has been live broadcasting. these also reflect the huge demand in the market.
second, there is no hoarding phenomenon on the market. with increasing production capacity of synthetic diamonds, the ownership of synthetic diamonds will be grown steady in the future, and the price of synthetic diamonds in the market will be lower accordingly. in such a case, the merchant, who is motivated by profit, will sell in time for cash. in june 2021, at the super hard material products exchange in zhengzhou, some people raised the question of "market conspiracy theory", and suspected that the market was stocking up, especially in the united states, which is the largest consumer of artificial cultivated diamonds. however, the technicians of element 6 on the scene denied it based on the fact that they saw with their own eyes. in order to verify this result, i asked my classmate zhangxia to conduct field investigation. after field investigation of several jewelry stores located near the center of new york city, it was confirmed that the physical stores were lined with synthetic diamonds and there was no stock.
third, from the front two logic upside, which from the actual operation of upward. if the manufacturer is not centralized enough, the production data statistics is become fragmented. currently, china accounts for 80% of the market for cultivated diamonds, with huanghe, zhongnan and huajing factories in henan accounting for 70% of the chinese market. the data are very centralized and easy to calculate.
from the three points upside, different from the previous studies. this **based on the artificial cultivation of the diamond industry the basic characteristics of the current market demand less than supply, starting from the production data of artificial cultivation diamond, by focusing on sampling, field 'research, analysis of methods such as logical reasoning to study the effect of artificial cultivation diamond for diamond industry in china.
based on the production data of henan huanghe whirl wind co., ltd., zhongnan diamond co., ltd., and zhengzhou sino-crystal diamond co., ltd., which are the top three companies in the production of artificial cultivated diamonds in china, the production statistics are analyzed.
henan huanghe whirl wind co., ltd. (referred to as the huanghe, stock trading code 600172), is located in henan province changge renmin road no. 200, is one of the government key support 50 large enterprises in henan province, is one of the few "torch plan" listed by the state key high-tech enterprise of private listed company, the company has state-level enterprise technology center and post-doctoral scientific research workstation. company is one of the largest diamond production bases, domestic production of the first, the world's highest in the nation. at present, the huanghe has 3000 presses, which are used to manufacture 1800 artificial cultivated diamonds, mainly producing one-carat rough stones (artificial cultivated diamonds blank). based on the **erage monthly production of 100 carats per press, the total production capacity is 180,000 carats per month, or 2.16 million carats per year. in addition, the actual survey of the huanghe is the new booster, plans to add a day, add 365 units a year, is expected to add 50% of pressure opportunity for manufacturing artificial cultivation diamond, so calculate down actually increased 110000 carats, can produce 2.27 million a total of 2021 carats.
zhongnan diamond co., ltd. (referred to as zhongnan), located in no.1669 zhongjing north road, wancheng district, fangcheng county, nanyang district, henan province, is a north industries group red arrow co., ltd (stock trading code 000519) is a wholly owned subsidiary, the company business scope including super-hard materials and tools, production of high-performance abrasive, abrasive, etc., is the second largest producer of synthetic diamonds. zhongnan company is the world's largest scientific research, production base of super-hard materials and products are mainly applied to traditional industrial areas, consumption and diamond functional applications. cultivation is implemented in the field of consumption, gem grade diamond of large-scale production, to break the foreign giant monopoly on diamond jewelry field main raw materials, china leads the world in the field of cultivating diamond; in the application of diamond functionalization, it has been popularized and applied in high and new technology fields. at present, there are 2800 presses in central and south china, which are used to manufacture 1600 artificial cultivated diamonds, mainly producing four carat rough stones (artificial cultivated diamond blank). based on the **erage monthly production of 100 carats per press, the total production capacity is 160,000 carats per month, or an annual output of 1.92 million carats.
zhengzhou sino-crystal diamond co., ltd.（zhongnan for short）, located in no.111 science **enue, new materials industrial park, zhengzhou city, henan province, it is a high-tech enterprise integrating professional research, production and sales of super-hard materials and their products industry chain. it is a pillar enterprise of super-hard materials industry and a backbone enterprise of henan super-hard materials industry base. at present, it is the third largest artificial cultivated diamond manufacturer in china. it has 1000 presses, which are used to manufacture 800 artificial cultivated diamonds, mainly producing one-carat rough stones (artificial cultivated diamonds blank). based on the **erage monthly production of 100 carats per press, the total production capacity is 80,000 carats per month, or 960,000 carats per year.
at the fourth place is henan province liliang diamond co., ltd. (liliang for short), which is located in henan zhecheng high-tech industrial development zone, the national industrialization base of super-hard materials and products. at present, it has 200 presses, which are used to manufacture 150 artificial cultivated diamonds, mainly producing one-carat rough stones (artificial cultivated diamonds blank). based on the **erage monthly production of 100 carats per press, the total production capacity is 15,000 carats per month, or 180,000 carats per year.
from the above data, the fourth liliang of three far in front, according to industry insiders, the total number of three industry leading compressor has reached all about 70% of the total number of industry, the data also demonstrated three accounted for 70% of the market. a few more points about china's production capacity of cultured diamonds:
first, in addition to the three giants of huanghe, zhongnan and huajing, many small factories in china are also continuously increasing their equipment, with an increase of 300 units planned. however, due to the capacity limitation of the equipment manufacturer, the pressure of the six-side top press is larger than that of the general machine, and many raw materials are not used, so the plan has not been implemented. but some of them h**e started producing. due to the small quantity, no detailed statistics are **ailable. these indicate that the statistics are less than the actual number.
second, the size of each equipment, used in the production of raw materials is different also. general technical parameters according to the market, each press the **erage monthly production 100 carats is based on the market most of the compressor performance evaluation, with the actual has certain deviation, but overall. large equipment can press large synthetic diamonds, the profit will be higher, but the processing cycle will be longer, on the other hand, small equipment can press smaller synthetic diamonds, the profit is lower but the finished product is more. different yields, similar yields.
third, some manufacturers h**e the possibility of production. they will be used in the manufacturing industry before the press to use in the production of artificial cultivation of diamonds to above. according to the current market situation, compared with the price of industrial diamonds, the current price of synthetic diamonds is more profitable and attractive. from this point of view, the statistics are conservative, and the actual data will be slightly higher.
fourth, the equipment proportion of the three giants of huanghe, zhongnan and huajing is based on the data before 2020, while the actual data of 2021 has not been **ailable, and the data of the quantity ratio has a certain lag.
fifth, about the “black swans”. some start-up factories and production capacity is very large, this is bound to h**e influence for the future expectations. in 2021, for example, plan to process 1.2 billion carats of high quality synthetic diamond project. if some of the 1.2 billion high-grade diamonds are manufactured, it will accelerate china's share of the world's manufactured diamonds. from this point of view, it is possible that the data will be earlier than expected.
in 2021, according to the above statistics we can calculate the total output of 7.35 million carats. by mapping the previous data, we can predict that china will account for 83% of the world's production of cultivated diamonds in 2021. this figure is far from the forecast of citic securities that china will account for 56% of the world's production capacity of cultivated diamonds by 2021. according to this figure can be expected by the end of 2022 china's artificial breeding of the world to foster diamonds capacity than that can reach about 90%. this figure is 4 years ahead of the previous forecast by citic securities.
one point to emphasis, the exception of the relevant data of the 2020 new crown of surprise is caused by the covid-19 pandemic, which has caused tr**el and consumption difficulties, reduced daily consumption and reduced production activities, so the world's production of cultured diamonds and china's production of cultured diamonds in 2020 did not increase significantly compared to 2019.
the rapid growth of china's manufactured diamond production capacity is bound to impact the market and drive down the wholesale price of manufactured diamonds in china. the wholesale price of cultured diamonds as a percentage of the retail price of natural diamonds dropped from 80%in 2016 to 65% in 2017, 50% in 2018 and 2019, and finally to 35% in 2020. in this **through the research data to predict the data will reach 25% in 2021. in the shape of the curve can predict 2022 artificial cultivation of diamond wholesale price accounts for the proportion of natural diamond retail price should be around 16%. in 2021, it will be only 10% lower than in 2020, as profits from cultured diamonds themselves h**e bottomed out and will fall less and less. this forecast data can give industry certain reference.
from the above data can also be predicted china's artificial breeding diamond exploding over the next 2-3 years will end, and changes in plants could also reduce high profits for enterprises. but the rapid opening of synthetic diamond factories in the next two to three years will lead to some overproduction. manufacturers need to pay special attention.
research shows that china's artificial cultivated diamonds are in the eruption period, and the demand has a great impact on the whole diamond industry. summarize the following five points:
first, with the effects of cultured diamonds, in the next few years the world production of natural diamond will decline sharply. the trend of natural diamonds being replaced by man-made ones is irreversible.
second, 2016 is a turning point for china's diamond industry. due to technological development, larger synthetic diamond production techniques h**e been conquered and are being produced by manufacturers. artificial cultivation of diamond because of low prices, quality and natural were similar, begin to be familiar and approved.
third, from 2018 to now, china has seen an explosion of man-made diamonds. in 2018, debeers, an industry giant, announced its move into synthetic diamonds. this marks the start of a new era of official development for cultured diamonds as they are "legally" recognized by the market.
fourth, according to the data, it is expected that in 2021, china's artificial cultivation of diamonds will account for 83% of the global production capacity.
fifth, china artificial cultivation of diamond in proportion to the wholesale price of natural diamond retail price dropped from 80% in 2016 to 25% in 2021, a year on **erage by 11%. from the data chart, we expect wholesale prices to reach around 16% in 2022, and the future price impact of synthetic diamonds on natural diamonds is fatal.
key words: artificial bred diamonds；diamond industry；yield；value
來源**：本文為作者畢業於法國布雷斯特商學院金融資產與管理專業碩士。