few ideas are more unshakable than the notion that the rich keep getting richer while ordinary folks fall ever further behind. the belief that capitalism is rigged to benefit the wealthy and punish the workers has shaped how millions view the world, whom they vote for and whom they shake their fists at. it has been a spur to political projects on both left and right, from the interventionism of joe biden to the populism of donald trump. but is it true?
富人越來越富，老百姓越來越落後“，這個觀念深深扎根於老百姓心中，堅不可摧。 資本主義縱以造福富人並懲罰工人的信念塑造了數百萬人的世界觀，影響了他們的選票去向和反對者。 這促使左翼和右翼的政治力量採取行動，例如喬·拜登的干預主義和唐納德·川普的民粹主義。 但這是真的嗎？
even as the suspicion of free markets has hardened, evidence for the argument that inequality is rising in the rich world has become flimsier. wage gaps are shrinking. since 2016 real weekly earnings for those at the bottom of america's pay distribution h**e grown faster than those at the top. since the covid-19 pandemic this wage compression has gone into overdrive; according to one estimate, it has been enough to reverse an extraordinary 40% of the pre-tax wage inequality that emerged during the previous 40 years. a blue-collar bonanza is under way.
雖然對自由市場的懷疑正在增加，但發達國家不平等加劇的論點卻步履蹣跚。 工資差距正在縮小。 自2024年以來，美國最低層人群的實際每週收入增長速度快於就業人數上限人群。 自疫情以來，薪資壓縮程序迅速加快;據估計，這足以扭轉過去40年中發生的40%的稅前薪酬不平等。 這是藍領階層的獎勵期。
across the atlantic, such trends are more nascent, but still apparent. in britain wage growth has been healthier at the bottom of the jobs market; in continental europe wage agreements are building in higher increases for the lower paid. long-running trends in inequality are being questioned, too. a decade ago thomas piketty, a french economist, became a household name by arguing that it had surged. now increasing weight is being given to research which finds that, after taxes and government transfers, american income inequality has barely increased since the 1960s.
在大西洋的另一邊，這種趨勢雖然尚未成熟，但仍然很明顯。 在英國，對於處於就業市場底層的人來說，工資增長更健康;在歐洲大陸，工資協議導致低收入人群的工資增長更高。 長期存在的不平等趨勢也受到質疑。 十年前，法國經濟學家托馬斯·皮凱蒂（Thomas Piketty）因其認為不平等正在加劇的觀點而家喻戶曉。 越來越多的研究發現，自2024年代以來，美國的收入不平等（不包括稅收和轉移支付）幾乎沒有增加。
all this can be discombobulating, not least when the prices you pay for food and energy h**e risen at an unusually fast pace. so ingrained is the idea that workers are suffering in today's world that claiming otherwise is almost heretical; the dissenting inequality research has sparked an ill-tempered debate among economists.
所有這些研究都令人困惑，尤其是當你以異常快的速度支付食物和能源時。 在當今世界，工人受苦的觀念是如此根深蒂固，以至於相反的觀點幾乎是異端邪說。 不同的不平等研究在經濟學家中引發了激烈的言論和辯論。
to understand what is going on, it helps to consider that the blue-collar bonanza is not just an artefact of the statistics: it makes intuitive sense, too. as we explain this week, three forces that shape labour markets—demand, demography and digitisation—h**e each shifted in ways that benefit workers.
要弄清楚問題的根源，請考慮藍領工人的股息財富不僅僅是統計資料的產物：它也是直觀的。 影響勞動力市場的三股力量——需求、人口統計和數位化——都發生了變化，有利於工人。
take demand. after quiescent inflation in the mid-2010s, america's federal reserve resolved to run the economy hot in the hope that doing so would bring more people into work. then, after covid-19 struck, governments across the rich world untied the purse-strings. this year the pandemic is a memory, but america has continued to run deficits of a size usually seen in depressions or wartime. as a consequence, demand for labour has stayed high even as central banks h**e raised interest rates.
以需求為例。 在2024年代中期通貨膨脹平靜下來後，美聯儲決心保持經濟的炙手可熱，希望這樣做可以讓更多的人找到工作。 然後，新冠疫情爆發後，發達國家**實施了寬鬆的財政政策。 今天，大流行已成為過去，但美國繼續存在鉅額赤字，這通常發生在經濟衰退或戰爭時期。 因此，即使各國央行加息，勞動力需求仍然很高。