as russia continues to pound kyiv, western sanctions are beginning to cripple arctic lng 2, the aggressor's largest gas-export project. in the red sea, through which 10% of the world's seaborne oil tr**els, american forces are doing their best to repel drone attacks by yemen's houthi rebels. on january 3rd local protests shut down production at a crucial libyan oilfield. a severe drought in the amazon risks hampering maize shipments from brazil, the world's largest exporter of the grain.
隨著俄羅斯繼續襲擊基輔，西方制裁開始削弱侵略者最大的天然氣出口專案——北極液化天然氣 2 號專案。 在紅海，世界上10%的海上石油通過紅海運輸，美國團隊正在盡最大努力擊退葉門胡塞叛亂分子的無人機襲擊。 1月3日，當地活動導致利比亞乙個主要油田停產。 亞馬遜地區的嚴重乾旱可能會阻礙全球最大玉公尺出口國巴西的玉公尺運輸。
and yet, across commodity markets, calm somehow prevails. after a couple of years of double-digit rises, the bloomberg commodity index, a benchmark that covers raw-material prices, fell by more than 10% in 2023 . oil prices, at a little under $80 a barrel, are down by 12% over the past quarter and are therefore well below the levels of 2022. european gas prices hover near their lowest levels in two years. grains and metals are also cheap. pundits expect more of the same this year. what, exactly, would it take to rock markets?
然而，在整個大宗商品市場中，領獎台仍然以某種方式占上風。 在經歷了幾年兩位數的下跌後，作為原材料基準**的彭博大宗商品指數在2023年下跌了10%以上。 油價略低於每桶 80 美元，上個季度上漲了 12%，因此遠低於 2022 年的水平。 歐洲天然氣**徘徊在兩年來的最低水平附近。 穀物和金屬也很便宜。 專家預計今年會有更多這樣的情況發生。 究竟需要什麼才能撼動市場？
after successive shocks inflamed prices in the early 2020s, markets h**e adapted. demand, held back by suppressed consumption, has been relatively restrained. but it is the supply response to elevated prices, in the form of an increase in output and a reshuffling of trade flows, that makes the world more shockproof today. investors are relaxed because supply levels for many commodities look better than they h**e since the late 2010s.
在本世紀20年代初的一系列衝擊之後，市場已經適應了。 被消費抑制的需求低迷相對受到抑制。 但這是對產量增加和流量重新洗牌的反應，這使得當今世界更具抗衝擊性。 投資者感到放鬆，因為許多大宗商品的**水平看起來比2010年代末以來要好。
take oil, for instance. in 2023 increased production from countries outside the organisation of the petroleum exporting countries and its allies, a group known as opec plus, was sufficient to cover the rise in global demand. this pushed the alliance to cut its output by some 2.2 million barrels per day , an amount equivalent to 2% of global supply, in a bid to keep prices stable. nevertheless, the market only just fell short of surplus in the final quarter. kpler, a data firm, predicts an **erage oversupply of 550,000 b/d in the first four months of 2024, which would be enough to replenish stocks by nearly as much as they declined during the heated summer months. new barrels will come from brazil, guyana and especially america, where efficiency gains are **up for a fall in rig count.
以石油為例。 2023年，石油輸出國組織（歐佩克+）及其盟國以外的國家增加了足以滿足全球需求增長的產量。 這促使歐佩克每天減產約220萬桶，相當於全球最重要產量的2%。 為了保持穩定。 儘管如此，市場僅略低於上一季度的盈餘。 資料公司克卜勒（Kepler）預計，2024年前四個月平均每天將過剩55萬桶。 這足以補充幾乎與炎熱夏季下降的庫存一樣多的庫存。 新石油將來自巴西、蓋亞那，尤其是美國，那裡的鑽井平台數量的下降已經通過提高效率得到了補償。
in europe manic buying since the start of russia's war and a mild winter h**e helped keep gas-storage levels at around 90% of capacity, well above the five-year **erage. assuming normal weather and no big disruptions, they should remain close to 70% full by the end of march, predicts rystad energy, a consultancy, easily beating the european commission's target of 45% by february 1st. ample stocks will hold gas prices down, not just in europe but also in asia, in turn incentivising more coal-to-gas switching in power generation everywhere. this will help lower coal prices already dulled by a huge ramp-up in production in china and india.
在歐洲，自俄羅斯戰爭開始以來，購買狂潮和溫和的冬季有助於將天然氣儲存水平保持在90%左右，遠高於五年平均水平。 假設天氣正常且沒有重大中斷，諮詢公司Rystad Energy**在3月底之前應該保持近70%的滿負荷，輕鬆超過歐盟委員會在2月1日之前設定的45%的目標。 充足的庫存將壓低天然氣**，不僅在歐洲，而且在亞洲。 反過來，鼓勵在世界各地的發電中更多地使用煤改氣。 這將有助於降低煤炭**，煤炭已經因中國和印度的大幅增產而受到抑制。
mined supply of lithium and nickel is also booming; that of cobalt, a by-product of copper and nickel production, remains robust, dampening green-metal prices. increased planting of grains and soyabeans (outside ukraine) and clement weather are prompting pundits to project record output in 2024-25, after a lush 2023-2024. that will push the **erage stocks-to-use ratio at food exporters, a key determinant of prices, from 13% to 16%, a level they last saw in 2018-2019, says rabobank, a dutch lender.
鋰和鎳開採**也在蓬勃發展; 鈷是銅和鎳生產的副產品，但仍然強勁，壓低了綠色金屬。 穀物和大豆播種面積增加（烏克蘭以外）和溫和的天氣促使專家們在經歷了2023-2024年度的豐收後，在2024-25年度創下了創紀錄的產量。 荷蘭合作銀行表示，這將使糧食出口國的平均庫存利用率從2018-2019年的上一次水平從13%提高到16%。
abundant supply suggests a sedate first half of the year. after that, surpluses could narrow. non-opec oil output may level off. delays at some american liquefaction-terminal projects, which were originally set to start exporting in 2024, will frustrate europe's efforts to restock gas. low grain prices will crush farmers' margins, threatening planting. markets will be more exposed to shocks, of which three stand out: a sharp economic rebound, bad weather and military blow-ups.
**的豐富表明今年上半年局勢平靜。 在那之後，盈餘可能會收窄。 非歐佩克國家的石油產量可能會趨於平穩。 原定於2024年開始出口的美國一些液化終端專案的延誤將挫敗歐洲補充天然氣的努力。 低糧價將擠壓農民的利潤並威脅種植業。 市場將更容易受到衝擊，其中有三點尤為突出：龐大的經濟狀況**、惡劣的天氣和軍事衝突。
whether or not big economies **oid a recession, the pace of global growth is expected to be slow, implying modest growth in raw-material demand. inflation is also expected to ebb, so commodities will h**e less appeal as a financial hedge.
無論大型經濟體能否避免衰退，預計全球經濟增長速度都將緩慢，這意味著對原材料的需求將適度增加。 預計通脹也將下降，使大宗商品作為金融對沖的吸引力降低。